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Nepal's Climate Story: Data, Change and Justice

Long-term readings, global patterns, and the ethics of a crisis Nepal did not cause

Grades 11–12 60 min discussion live IESH data

Students analyse the station's historical temperature trend, compare it to regional climate projections, calculate the economic cost of climate impacts on Nepal, and engage with the ethical question of climate justice.

Learning objectives

  • Extract a trend from time-series sensor data and represent it quantitatively.
  • Explain Nepal's climate vulnerability in terms of both physical geography and economic exposure.
  • Evaluate the concept of climate justice — who bears responsibility when the victims and the causes are different nations.
  • Construct a structured written argument on a climate policy question.

Background

Climate change is not uniform — it affects different regions differently. The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is warming at roughly twice the global average rate. A 2°C global average warming means closer to 4°C in mountain areas. This is already measurable: the Himalayan glacier Ama Dablam's ice field has visibly retreated in photographs taken just decades apart. IPCC projections for South Asia show increased frequency of extreme rainfall events, longer dry spells between monsoon rains, and rising sea levels threatening coastal Bangladesh — which in turn drives migration pressure into Nepal.

The economics of climate impact in Nepal are staggering relative to the country's GDP. The 2015 earthquake caused losses equivalent to about 35% of GDP; major flood-and-landslide years routinely cost 1–2% of GDP in infrastructure damage alone, not counting agricultural losses or health costs. The World Bank estimates that without adaptation investment, climate change could reduce Nepal's GDP by 2–3% annually by 2050.

Climate justice asks a fundamental question: if the countries that caused climate change are largely wealthy nations that industrialised over 150 years, and the countries experiencing the worst impacts are mostly poor nations that did very little to cause it, what are the moral obligations of wealthy nations to Nepal? This debate sits at the heart of every COP (Conference of Parties) climate negotiation, and Nepal's negotiators are active participants.

Procedure

  1. Open the temperature history chart. Describe the trend you see in the data: is temperature increasing, decreasing, stable, or variable?
  2. Read: Nepal's average temperature has increased by approximately 0.06°C per year since 1975 — roughly double the global average rate. How much total warming does this imply over 50 years?
  3. In groups: list THREE specific ways this warming rate would affect (a) a Himalayan glacier, (b) a rice farmer in Chitwan, (c) a trekking tourism business.
  4. Calculate: if Nepal's annual GDP is approximately USD 40 billion, and climate damages are estimated at 2% of GDP annually by 2050, what is the annual financial loss in USD?
  5. Read Nepal's per-capita CO₂ emissions: approximately 0.5 tonnes per year per person. The global average is 4.7 tonnes. The USA average is 14.9 tonnes. Create a simple bar chart of these three values.
  6. Class debate or structured discussion: "Wealthy industrialised nations have a legal and moral obligation to fund Nepal's climate adaptation." Prepare two arguments for and two arguments against.

Discussion

  1. Is it fair that Nepal faces severe climate impacts from emissions it did not produce? How should fairness be defined in a global context?
  2. What is the difference between climate mitigation (reducing emissions) and climate adaptation (adjusting to impacts)? Which should Nepal prioritise, and who should pay for each?
  3. How would you feel if you were a Nepali negotiator at a COP summit, presenting these statistics to countries with 30× Nepal's per capita emissions?

Worksheet

1. At 0.06°C of warming per year, how much warmer will Nepal be in 2075 compared to 2025? Show your calculation. [3 marks]

Answer guide (for teachers)

2075 − 2025 = 50 years. 50 × 0.06 = 3.0°C warmer. Accept full marks for correct arithmetic and working shown.

2. Write a paragraph explaining why Nepal is particularly vulnerable to climate change despite having very low emissions. Include at least THREE specific physical or economic factors. [6 marks]

Answer guide (for teachers)

Should include: mountain glacier dependence for water; monsoon agriculture dependence; poverty limiting adaptation capacity; Himalayan warming amplification; GLOF risk; thin disaster-response capacity. Award marks for specificity.

3. Define "climate justice" in your own words and give one example of how it applies to Nepal's situation. [4 marks]

Answer guide (for teachers)

Climate justice is the principle that the burden of climate impacts should not fall disproportionately on those who contributed least to the problem. Nepal example: Nepal contributes <0.1% of emissions but faces GDP-scale losses from climate impacts caused primarily by wealthy industrialised nations.

Vocabulary

GLOF
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood — a sudden release of water from a lake dammed by glacial ice or moraine, which can be catastrophic downstream.
Climate Justice
The ethical framework that considers the unequal causes and impacts of climate change across different nations, communities and generations.
GDP
Gross Domestic Product — the total monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year.
Climate Adaptation
Changes made to human systems and practices to reduce harm from climate change impacts that are already occurring.
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
A country's self-set plan under the Paris Agreement describing its climate commitments for emissions reduction and adaptation.

Extension

Read Nepal's most recent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the UNFCCC (available online). Identify two specific commitments Nepal has made and assess whether the data from a sensor station like this one could help monitor progress toward those commitments.

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